7 Feb - Emma Suckling will be giving an invited talk to the Meteorology group at the University of Reading. The title of the talk is still to be confirmed.
14-18 Feb - Leonard Smith will be giving an invited talk on 'Two-way communication with decision makers on uncertainties of climate science' at the 2013 AAAS Annual Meeting in Boston. (Abstract)
1 Mar - Sarah Higgins, Alex Jarman and Ed Wheatcroft have all submitted posters for the LSE Research Festival, which takes place on 1 March as part of LSE's prestigious Space for Thought Literary Festival. The awards ceremony will take place on 19 March.
18-20 Mar - David Stainforth will be taking part in a ‘practitioner’ panel session at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference in Hamburg. Session title: Addressing uncertainties in national climate change vulnerability/risk assessments and national adaptation strategies.
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N W Watkins Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: Dissipative and Non-Dissipative Models of Correlated Extreme Fluctuations in Complex Geosystems Geophysical Research Letters (to appear) This paper was also presented as an AGU e-poster
R Frigg, L A Smith, and D A Stainforth 'The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09' Philosophy of Science (to appear)
P Glendinning & L A Smith ‘Lacunarity and Period-doubling’ Dynamical Systems (to appear)
A Millner, R Calel, D Stainforth and G MacKerron (2013) Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change? Climatic Change, 116(2), 427-436.
S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, and N W Watkins (2013, in press), ‘On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends’ Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A-Math. Phys. Eng. Sci.,
D J Baker (14 December 2012) ‘Cloudy Forecast for Weather Satellite Data’, a letter in Science, 338, p.1419
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HEIF5 award for ‘Communicating the Character of Climate Change Uncertainty’ led by D Stainforth. 18 months, starting Jan 2013. £56,000. This project will build on the exhibition Confidence from Uncertainty: Interpreting Climate Predictions.
IIF-SAS small grant application ‘Improving judgmental input to hurricane forecasts in the insurance and reinsurance sector’: Zoe Theocharis, UCL (jointly supervised Nigel Harvey & L Smith). 6 months, starting Jan 2013. $5,000.
EU FP7 smart cities: ‘CELSIUS’. Led at LSE by H Wynn. 60 months, starting early 2013.
RPI-BIOS: ‘Evaluating Seasonal Forecasts of the Main Development Region and the El Niño 3.4 Index’. Led by L Smith. 8 months, $46,890.
EPSRC: ‘Delivering and evaluating multiple flood risk benefits’ (or ‘BlueGreen Cities’). Led by Colin Thorne at Nottingham. PI at LSE L Smith. 36 months starting 1 Jan 2013, £92,843
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Each issue we ask one researcher to contribute a short update on their recent research progress.
Ed Wheatcroft is a PhD research student at CATS, as part of the NERC-funded RAPID-RAPIT project.
“Over the last few months I have been working on a number of research topics. Firstly, I have been using the method of shadowing ratios from my previous research to compare data assimilation techniques. I presented a poster at the International Conference on Ensemble Methods in Geophysical Sciences in which I showed, among other things, how Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation (PDA) tends to perform better than 4DVAR in an increasingly non-linear environment.
Secondly, I have been working on ways to find the optimal kernel width when using kernel density estimation to convert ensembles to probability distribution. These methods use kernel widths that depend partly on the individual characteristics of each ensemble rather than using a constant width over all ensembles. Both use past experience of ensembles and their verifications but we find that the former method tends to give us a lower ignorance score and hence a better probabilistic forecast in most cases.
Thirdly, I have been looking at the Correlation Coefficient Skill Score and its relationship with other skill scores. The score finds the correlation between the forecasts and their verifications and is occasionally used by forecasters as a supposed measure of skill mainly for its simplicity. Using existing literature, I have produced a short summary of its failings along with examples of why using such a score can be extremely misleading and should never be used.
Finally, I have been looking at the problem of data assimilation in the setting of coloured (correlated) noise. During the coming weeks, I will be looking the performance of data assimilation techniques with different types of noise, particularly in the case when distinguishing noise from the signal is difficult.”
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24-27 Jan - Milena Cuellar attended a workshop at the Carnegie Foundation for the Advacement of Teaching in the Pathways Winter Orientation for the Statway platform, in Pala Alto, California. She was selected by the President of LaGuardia C.C. (CUNY) to be in the team of four Faculty to evaluate this way of teaching statistics to students placed in developmental mathematics courses.
10 Jan - Henry Wynn was invited to give a lecture at the Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, as part of a series in which the latest developments in research are presented to a non-specialist audience. He spoke on the subject of Monomial Ideals in Algebraic Statistics and Probability.
3-7 Dec - Leonard Smith spoke at the 2012 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco. His invited talk was on Queuing the wrong U? (talk slides here), and he also delivered a talk with co-author Emma Suckling, entitled Increasing the relevance of GCM simulations for Climate Services (talk slides here).
21 Nov - CATS and CCCEP hosted the Munich Re Programme Symposium on Insurance in emerging markets: Determinants of growth and the case of climate change?. The Symposium was led by Dr. Swenja Surminski.
12-16 Nov - Emma Suckling and Leonard Smith presented talks at the International Conference on Ensemble Methods in Geophysical Sciences in Toulouse. Leonard was on the Scientific Organising Committee and spoke on ‘Guidance Information or Probability Forecast: Where do Ensembles Aim?'. Emma’s talk was entitled 'The Pseudo-orbit Gradient Descent Ensemble Data Assimilation Method'.
16 Oct – Senior Visiting Fellow Dr D James Baker gave a talk entitled ‘REDD: Characterising Forest Carbon in Guyana’ at the College of Earth, Ocean and Environment at the University of Delaware.
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E Suckling ‘An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models’ (under revision) Journal of Climate
H Du ‘Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation Part I: The Perfect Model Scenario’ (submitted) Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
H Du ‘Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation Part II: Assimilation with Imperfect Models’ (submitted) Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
J D Daron and D Stainforth ‘On predicting climate under climate change’ (submitted) Environmental Research Letters
R Calel, D Stainforth and S Dietz ‘Tall tales and fat tails: The science and economics of extreme warming’ (submitted) EQUIP special issue, Climatic Change
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ERC Synergy grant ‘Collaborative Laboratory for Predicting Market Singularities & Extreme Events in Economy (COLLAPSE)’. Submitted 10 Jan 2013. Led by Tuomo Kauranne, LUT (Finland). PI at LSE L Smith.
FP7 grant ‘RECOMB’. Submitted Dec 2012. Led by Lars Moberger, Swedish Institute of Technology (SP). PI at LSE H Wynn.
FP7 grant ‘Saving water and energy and increasing efficiency for dairy products value chain (We4value)’). Led by Lars Moberger, Swedish Institute of Technology (SP). PI at LSE H Wynn.
Royal Society International Exchanges. Led by H Du. Title: ‘Broadening access to pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation’. Submitted Oct 2012. For collaboration with Jeff Anderson at NCAR, Boulder.
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