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Centre for the Analysis of Time Series
CATS eNews                                                              Issue 19 (March 2014)
 
This quarter, we bring you updates on the Centre's activities over the past few months, as well as highlighting some upcoming dates for your diary.
As ever, please do keep the CATS administrative team up to date with all of your CATS-related activities!

Firstly, our CONGRATULATIONS to Alex Jarman, who has submitted his PhD thesis entitled 'On the Provision, Reliability, and Use of Hurricane Forecasts on all Timescales'. The viva is due to take place in May.
We were sad to say goodbye to Emma Suckling in December but we wish her all good luck in her new role at the University of Reading.  
10-12 March - David Stainforth will be giving two talks: 'Mapping observed adaptation-relevant changes in local climate' and 'Quantifying climate science uncertainty: from model ensembles to expert elicitation', at the Adaptation Frontiers Conference, Lisbon.

11 March - Leonard Smith will be speaking at the CPNSS Workshop 'Rethinking Theory Construction in Social Science', LSE.

11-13 March - Ralph Rayner is leading the organisation of Oceanology International, a multi strand conference on marine technology and its applications being held at the Excel Exhibition and Conference Centre.

21 March - David Stainforth will be giving a seminar at Kings College, London.

30 March-4 April - Nick Watkins will be giving a presentation at the forthcoming German Physical Society meeting, Dresden, entitled 'On the surprising robustness of the surplus run length ratio formula, and its application to extreme bursts in time series from natural complex systems', and a poster entitled 'Bayesian Analysis of Non-Gaussian Long-Range Dependent Processes'.

31 March-3 April - Leonard Smith has been invited to give a talk at the SIAM Conference on Uncertainty Quantification in Savannah, Georgia, USA. The talk will be entitled 'Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation and the Roles of Uncertainty in Multi-Model Forecasting'.

22 April - Ralph Rayner is leading the organisation of 'Small Sea Changes Big Coastal Impacts', a workshop at the Explorers Club in New York on coastal hazards.

27 April-2 May - Nick Watkins and David Stainforth will be giving presentations at the EGU General Assembly 2014, Vienna. Nick Watkins' presentations will be entitled 'On the surprising robustness of the surplus run length and size ratio formulae, and their application to bursts in natural time series' and 'Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed and long-range dependent Processes'.

8 May - Erica Thompson's poster 'The Hawkmoth Effect' has been selected for inclusion in the LSE Research Festival 2014 Exhibition.

12 May-4 July - The Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems (MPIPKS), Dresden, will be running a program on 'Causality, information transfer and dynamical networks'.
 
Beven, K. 'Total flood defence is a myth: we must learn to live with the water', article in The Conversation, 10 February 2014

Beven, K.J., and Binley, A.M. (2013) GLUE, 20 years on. Hydrol. Process. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.10082

Beven, K.J. and Hall, J.W. (ed.) (2014) Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management, Imperial College Press / World Scientific: London

Bradley, S., Frigg, R., Du, H. and Smith, L.A. 'Model Error and Ensemble Forecasting: A Cautionary Tale', forthcoming in: Guichun C. Guo and Chuang Liu (ed.) Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science, Singapore: World Scientific

Daron, J.D. and Stainforth, D.A. 'Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate', Climate Risk Management (accepted, Jan 14)

Delsman, J.R., Oude Essink, G.H.P., Beven, K.J. and Stuyfzand, P.J. (2013) Uncertainty estimation of end-member mixing using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), applied in a lowland catchment, Water Resour. Res., 49(8): 4792-4806   DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.20341

Du, H., Niehoerster, F., Suckling, E. and Smith, L.A. 'Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts' in review for QJRMS

Francis, A.R. and Wynn, H.P. (2014) Subgroup majorization. Linear Algebra  Appl. 444, 53–66

Frigg, R., Bradley, S., Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2014) Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices Philosophy of Science, 81(1) (January 2014), pp. 31-59

Frigg, R., Smith, L.A. and Stainforth, D.A. (2013) The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09  Philosophy of Science, 80(5), pp. 886–897

Kobayashi, K. and Wynn, H.P. (2014) Empirical geodesic graphs and CAT(k) metrics for data analysis. arXiv:1401.3020

Kobayashi, K and Wynn, H.P. (2014) Computational algebraic methods in efficient estimation. arXiv:1310.6515

Nielsen, J.E., Beven, K., Thorndahl, S., Rasmussen, M.R. (2014) GLUE based marine X-band weather radar data calibration and uncertainty estimation. Urban Water Journal. DOI:10.1080/1573062X.2013.871044

Stainforth, D.A. 'Testing Climate Assumptions', News and Views article, Nature Climate Change, 9 March 2014

10 March - Keith Beven gave an invited talk at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland on 'How to make decisions about future water when there is still so much we do not know?'

10 March - Ralph Rayner led the organisation of a one-day conference 'Catch the Next Wave' at the Royal Academy of Engineering on future technologies and the fostering of cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral innovation.  After the conference Ralph spoke at a Foundation for Science and Technology debate at the Royal Society, on the topic of 'turning knowledge into value - adding value to the marine sector from research and innovation'.

6 March - David Stainforth was on a panel at the 'Rhyme and Reason: reflections on climate change' event, LSE.

18 February - Leonard Smith was invited to attend a one-day meeting in Washington on the urgent problem of finding new ways to fund and implement long-term climate observations. The meeting was organised by Jim Baker (NOAA), Carl Wunsch (Harvard/MIT), Ray Schmitt (WHOI) and Ralph Keeling (SIO).

13-17 February - Leonard Smith spoke at the AAAS Annual Meeting 2014 in Chicago.  His talk was entitled: 'Confounding Solid Science and Uncertain Modelling: Improving Climate Policy Modelling'.

12 February - David Stainforth gave a seminar entitled 'Searching for Robust Information in Climate Change Science' at Imperial College.

6-7 February - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'The User Made Me Do It: Seamless Forecasts, Higher Hemlines and Credible Computation' at the 'Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions' Workshop, GeorgiaTech, Atlanta, USA. David Stainforth gave a presentation entitled 'Getting More from Observations for Adaptation Planning'.

28-29 January - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) Climate Day 2014 meeting in Washington DC.

21 January - Keith Beven gave a talk at the NERC PURE CREDIBLE/RACER consortium meeting on 'Observational Uncertainties'.

19-25 January - Dr Ofer Engel and Professor Peter Abell's visit to Gothenburg as part of the CELSIUS project generated some local media attention: The CELSIUS Insider and Vårt Göteborg.

14 January - David Stainforth gave a talk entitled 'Risk in Climate Models' at a Grantham Research Institute workshop called 'Risk Management and Climate Change' held at the Law Society.

13 January - David Stainforth gave a short talk at an FCO organised meeting at the Royal Society, hosted by Sir Brian Hoskins, with a delegation of Chinese scientists from China's Expert Committee on Climate Change.

10 January - Roman Frigg gave an invited lecture on 'Chaos Beyond the Butterfly Effect: The Poison Pill of Structural Model Error', Center for Advanced Studies, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich.

9 January - Keith Beven gave an invited talk on 'Epistemic Uncertainty and Environmental Model' at the NERC workshop 'Statistics for Environmental Evaluation: Quantifying the environment', Glasgow.

9 January - David Stainforth was an invited participant in the CliMathNet policy group meeting which links this climate maths network with policy makers.

8-10 January - CATS held a three-day workshop on Understanding Uncertainty in Environmental Modelling as part of NERC's Postgraduate and Professional Skills Development programme following a successful proposal by Dr Erica Thompson. The workshop was highly interactive and students came away with an overview of current debates in environmental modelling theory, implementation, inference, and communication of results.  It was a great success and we hope to apply for further funding to run similar workshops again in future (to cater for some of the 100+ applications we had to turn down due to limited space!).

8 January - Roman Frigg gave an invited lecture on 'Laplace's Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices', SimTech Colloquium, University of Stuttgart, Germany.

8 January - Nick Watkins gave a talk in Applied Mathematics Informal Seminar, Mathematics Department, UIT, Tromso, Norway, 'Some work in progress on bursts in complex systems'.

17 December 2013 - Nick Watkins gave an invited seminar at MPIPKS, Dresden, on 'The surprising robustness of the surplus run length ratio formula, & its application to bursts from natural complex systems'.

16-18 December 2013 - Leonard Smith and David Stainforth attended the '(Re)Thinking National Climate Scenarios' Workshop, Reading.  Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled '(Pre)Thinking National Science Contracts which Request Science Beyond the Pale'. David Stainforth gave a talk entitled 'Painting Pictures of the Future'.

9-13 December 2013 - Leonard Smith gave the Charney Lecture at the AGU Fall Meeting 2013, San Francisco. His lecture was entitled 'Predictability, Probability(s) and Physical Insight'. Other CATS talks and posters were also presented - see CATS at AGU 2013.

19 November 2013 - David Stainforth was an invited panel member at the Living With Environmental Change General Assembly 2013, Birmingham.
Erica Thompson submitted a proposal to the LSE HEIF5 fund entitled 'Advanced Training in the Use of Complex Models in Decision-making', with a view to running a series of workshops aimed at industry practitioners.

Hailiang Du and Leonard Smith are preparing a Standard Grant application to EPSRC entitled 'Multi-model Forecast Cross-Pollination'.

CATS is also involved in a number of EU Horizon 2020 proposals.
 
Job Opportunity

Meteorologist/weather analyst required to join very successful London based commodity trading company

Meteorologist/weather analyst required to join very successful London based commodity trading company Cumulus. The person would be part of the highly sophisticated, well resourced and well funded weather team. The role involves both interpretation of current weather forecasts and R&D. Candidates should have an atmospheric science PhD from a university with an international reputation and renowned research track record, and have exceptional data analysis and problem solving skills. Previous experience in operational forecasting is not a prerequisite.
This is a unique opportunity to be part of an end-to-end process applying weather forecasts to commodity trading, with instant feedback and exceptionally high rewards for success.
The role will initially be based in London with the potential flexibility to move to Geneva. Please send CVs by mid-March to cumulus.jobs@cityfinancial.co.uk
 
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